Abstract: Granger causality has been employed to investigate causality relations between components of stationary multiple time series. We generalize this concept by developing statistical inference for local Granger causality for multivariate locally stationary processes. Our proposed local Granger causality approach captures time-evolving causality relationships in nonstationary processes. The proposed local Granger causality is well represented in the frequency domain and estimated based on the parametric time-varying spectral density matrix using the local Whittle likelihood. Under regularity conditions, we demonstrate that the estimators converge to multivariate normal in distribution. Additionally, the test statistic for the local Granger causality is shown to be asymptotically distributed as a quadratic form of a multivariate normal distribution. For practical demonstration, the proposed local Granger causality method uncovered new functional connectivity relationships between channels in brain signals. Moreover, the method was applicable to topological data analysis to identify structural changes in financial data.

Key words and phrases: Brain signals, local Granger causality, local Whittle likelihood, multivariate locally stationary processes, time-varying spectral density matrix, topological data analysis.