Abstract: For analyzing record statistics from a sequence of non-i.i.d. random variables, a model with one or two parameters, controlling the occurrences of record-breakings, is proposed. Under the model, the number of record-breakings within n steps has a probability function including the Stirling-Carlitz polynomial of the first kind. Its expected number is still O(logn) and saturates in the long run. Waiting time to the sth occurrence also has a probability function of similar form. Under this model, methods for predicting future record-breakings are proposed, and applied to some practical data sets of weather and sports.
Key words and phrases: Nevzorov model, random walk, record value theory, Stirling-Carlitz polynomial, Stirling family of discrete distributions.