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Statistica Sinica 26 (2016), 1427-1451

REGIME-SWITCHING FACTOR MODELS
FOR HIGH-DIMENSIONAL TIME SERIES
Xialu Liu and Rong Chen
San Diego State University and Rutgers University

Abstract: We consider a factor model for high-dimensional time series with regime-switching dynamics. The switching is assumed to be driven by an unobserved Markov chain; the mean, factor loading matrix, and covariance matrix of the noise process are different among the regimes. The model is an extension of the traditional factor models for time series and provides flexibility in dealing with applications in which underlying states may be changing over time. We propose an iterative approach to estimating the loading space of each regime and clustering the data points, combining eigenanalysis and the Viterbi algorithm. The theoretical properties of the procedure are investigated. Simulation results and the analysis of a data example are presented.

Key words and phrases: Factor model, hidden Markov process, high-dimensional time series, nonstationary process, regime switch, Viterbi algorithm.

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